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Red44
914027.5
94483.1
72719.0
Blue46
510318.9
1279.8
908016.1
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions483902060804446

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+12Teleop
+10Endgame
Fouls+2
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave0
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points6
3Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +15
5Coral scored#3
17Coral points12
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
31Total teleop16
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
9Game pieces#5
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +2
6Foul points18
44Total score46

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9140
#10
27.50.3
20.720.5
Auto3.2
Teleop23.2
End1.1
red by 8.6
5103
#16
18.91.1
14.913.8
Auto3.8
Teleop13.0
End2.0
Second
7271
#35
9.00.3
11.911.6
Auto0.9
Teleop6.6
End1.5
blue by 7.1
9080
#30
16.11.1
10.89.7
Auto5.1
Teleop8.7
End2.4
Third
9448
#41
3.10.3
7.97.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop0.9
End2.3
blue by 6.7
127
#21
9.81.1
6.25.1
Auto3.3
Teleop4.7
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
23%Auto oddsMissed17%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed18%Barge oddsMissed