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Red26
754012.9
47177.9
94483.1
Blue46
1051813.4
857311.9
635722.2
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions33480204060801002646

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+20
Endgame+18
Fouls+20
AutonomousBlue +6
3Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
3Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +14
4Coral scored#6
13Coral points21
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
17Total teleop31
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#2
1L2#2
0L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#9
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +20
0Foul points2
26Total score46

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7540
#12
12.90.9
15.814.9
Auto3.7
Teleop7.5
End1.6
blue by 9.3
6357
#23
22.20.2
19.619.8
Auto3.4
Teleop16.9
End1.9
Second
4717
#32
7.90.9
8.77.8
Auto1.7
Teleop5.4
End0.7
blue by 5.6
13.40.2
9.810.0
Auto3.5
Teleop8.8
End1.1
Third
9448
#41
3.10.9
4.93.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop0.9
End2.3
blue by 8.8
8573
#27
11.90.2
9.29.4
Auto3.7
Teleop6.0
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
20%Auto oddsMissed13%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsMissed