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Red58
862512.9
941829.3
912110.6
Blue47
69018.7
541420.3
367924.2
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions516502040801005847

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+5Teleop
+17Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +8
6Coral scored#5
22Coral points18
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
0Processor points0
8Net points4
8Algae points4
30Total teleop22
Reef
3L4#2
2L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
9Game pieces#6
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
6Foul points12
58Total score47

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.30.6
22.923.5
Auto4.8
Teleop20.9
End3.7
red by 5.1
24.21.7
20.118.5
Auto3.8
Teleop19.6
End0.8
Second
8625
#24
12.90.6
10.911.5
Auto2.4
Teleop6.8
End3.6
blue by 7.5
5414
#36
20.31.7
20.819.1
Auto4.2
Teleop15.1
End1.0
Third
9121
#19
10.60.5
12.012.6
Auto3.3
Teleop5.5
End1.8
red by 1.9
6901
#15
8.71.8
13.011.2
Auto3.3
Teleop3.8
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
19%Auto oddsMissed29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed