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Red190
1038521.4
11897.5
32446.3
Blue122
589250.5
664513.6
23149.4
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17710750150200190122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+56Teleop
+66Endgame
+68Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave6
5Coral scored#5
26Coral points23
26Total auto29
TeleoperatedRed +59
18Coral scored#14
66Coral points51
5Processor algae#1
9Net algae#4
30Processor points6
36Net points16
66Algae points22
132Total teleop73
Reef
7L4#7
8L3#6
6L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#24
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +68
6Foul points4
190Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
118
#1
97.50.5
95.896.3
Auto21.1
Teleop64.9
End11.5
red by 47.1
50.50.2
48.648.9
Auto13.1
Teleop31.8
End5.5
Second
324
#4
46.30.5
44.645.1
Auto7.0
Teleop34.0
End5.4
blue by 3.1
231
#8
49.40.2
47.647.8
Auto8.6
Teleop32.1
End8.7
Third
21.40.5
19.720.2
Auto2.7
Teleop16.5
End2.3
red by 7.8
6645
#33
13.60.2
11.712.0
Auto3.0
Teleop7.8
End2.8