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Red200
288160.7
23154.1
636982.6
Blue186
543143.9
384762.4
910567.9
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions197166120140180220240260200186

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+6Teleop
+8Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
6Leave3
7Coral scored#4
37Coral points20
43Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +14
18Coral scored#26
63Coral points95
5Processor algae#4
8Net algae#5
30Processor points24
32Net points20
62Algae points44
125Total teleop139
Reef
12L4#9
5L3#10
3L2#7
5L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#39
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +14
6Foul points0
200Total score186

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
82.60.4
78.278.6
Auto22.2
Teleop51.9
End8.5
red by 14.7
67.91.4
64.265.6
Auto14.3
Teleop46.4
End7.2
Second
60.70.4
57.457.7
Auto11.0
Teleop40.8
End9.0
blue by 1.6
62.41.4
57.759.1
Auto13.2
Teleop39.4
End9.9
Third
231
#6
54.10.4
49.850.2
Auto7.7
Teleop36.6
End9.8
red by 10.2
5431
#26
43.91.4
37.238.6
Auto6.1
Teleop35.1
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
31%Coral oddsEarned39%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
99%Barge oddsEarned92%Barge oddsEarned