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Red120
817740.7
731234.4
419238.9
Blue58
950635.2
913735.7
857320.1
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8962020408010012014012058

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+64Teleop
+62Endgame
+62Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave9
4Coral scored#0
20Coral points0
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +50
17Coral scored#5
61Coral points19
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
6Processor points6
16Net points8
22Algae points14
83Total teleop33
Reef
9L4#2
4L3#1
5L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
26Game pieces#8
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +62
0Foul points0
120Total score58

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8177
#11
40.72.6
25.127.8
Auto8.0
Teleop24.2
End8.5
red by 5.0
9137
#31
35.70.3
27.327.0
Auto6.3
Teleop26.3
End3.1
Second
4192
#38
38.92.6
27.229.8
Auto8.0
Teleop29.2
End1.7
red by 3.7
9506
#33
35.20.3
27.126.8
Auto5.8
Teleop24.4
End4.9
Third
7312
#28
34.42.6
28.030.6
Auto5.4
Teleop26.7
End2.2
red by 14.3
8573
#36
20.10.3
7.97.6
Auto3.5
Teleop13.1
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
38%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsEarned32%Barge oddsEarned