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Red123
258247.3
415331.8
541448.7
Blue76
436419.9
913735.7
697433.6
81%Model gave it19%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1248205010015020012376

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+27Teleop
+49Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave0
3Coral scored#3
16Coral points16
19Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +24
17Coral scored#12
62Coral points42
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
80Total teleop56
Reef
10L4#5
4L3#5
4L2#2
2L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#18
BargeRed +22
24Cage & park2
24Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +47
0Foul points2
123Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5414
#15
48.71.1
35.236.3
Auto9.9
Teleop35.8
End2.9
red by 12.9
9137
#31
35.70.2
27.026.8
Auto6.3
Teleop26.3
End3.1
Second
2582
#19
47.31.1
41.842.9
Auto6.7
Teleop33.5
End7.1
red by 13.7
6974
#37
33.60.2
24.424.2
Auto3.6
Teleop28.9
End1.0
Third
4153
#21
31.81.1
21.923.0
Auto4.9
Teleop18.9
End7.9
red by 11.9
4364
#35
19.90.2
16.816.6
Auto5.8
Teleop12.8
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
87%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsMissed