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Qual 212025 FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division
Red158
817740.7
949257.5
950635.2
Blue124
473444.8
542743.5
129656.7
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11213050100150200158124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+2Teleop
+34Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave0
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points9
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +19
19Coral scored#16
70Coral points57
1Processor algae#5
4Net algae#6
6Processor points30
16Net points24
22Algae points54
92Total teleop111
Reef
9L4#5
8L3#6
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#29
BargeRed +32
36Cage & park4
36Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +34
0Foul points0
158Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9492
#16
57.52.8
50.6→53.3
Auto13.1
Teleop36.6
End7.8
red by 0.8
1296
#13
56.70.5
44.6→44.1
Auto5.1
Teleop43.3
End8.3
Second
8177
#11
40.72.8
27.8→30.6
Auto8.0
Teleop24.2
End8.5
blue by 4.0
4734
#24
44.80.5
37.8→37.3
Auto8.2
Teleop32.7
End3.8
Third
9506
#33
35.22.8
26.8→29.6
Auto5.8
Teleop24.4
End4.9
blue by 8.3
5427
#23
43.50.5
37.9→37.4
Auto7.6
Teleop31.3
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
17%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsMissed