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Red159
949257.5
857650.8
731234.4
Blue116
543143.9
419238.9
415331.8
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14810150200250159116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+35Teleop
+43Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave9
3Coral scored#0
16Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +28
25Coral scored#19
89Coral points69
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
18Processor points6
12Net points16
30Algae points22
119Total teleop91
Reef
11L4#8
8L3#4
6L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
34Game pieces#24
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
0Foul points0
159Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9492
#16
57.51.2
54.856.0
Auto13.1
Teleop36.6
End7.8
red by 13.6
5431
#26
43.90.6
38.439.0
Auto6.1
Teleop35.1
End2.7
Second
8576
#20
50.81.2
40.441.6
Auto4.7
Teleop38.4
End7.7
red by 11.9
4192
#38
38.90.6
32.633.2
Auto8.0
Teleop29.2
End1.7
Third
7312
#28
34.41.2
34.835.9
Auto5.4
Teleop26.7
End2.2
red by 2.6
4153
#21
31.80.6
27.027.6
Auto4.9
Teleop18.9
End7.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned81%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
21%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
87%Barge oddsEarned38%Barge oddsEarned