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Red163
951513.9
910567.9
41859.7
Blue145
464142.6
817740.7
542743.5
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15413050100200250163145

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+2Teleop
+14Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave9
8Coral scored#4
41Coral points21
44Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +12
21Coral scored#21
75Coral points77
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
6Processor points12
8Net points12
14Algae points24
89Total teleop101
Reef
13L4#10
8L3#6
3L2#6
5L1 · trough#3
32Game pieces#30
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
4Foul points0
163Total score145

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.90.5
66.967.4
Auto14.3
Teleop46.4
End7.2
red by 24.5
5427
#23
43.50.9
43.644.5
Auto7.6
Teleop31.3
End4.6
Second
418
#22
59.70.5
56.056.5
Auto14.8
Teleop35.9
End9.1
red by 17.1
4641
#27
42.60.9
40.341.2
Auto13.0
Teleop27.3
End2.3
Third
9515
#45
13.90.5
13.814.3
Auto4.7
Teleop7.5
End1.8
blue by 26.8
8177
#11
40.70.9
34.235.1
Auto8.0
Teleop24.2
End8.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
57%Coral oddsMissed29%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsEarned