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Red239
300592.0
635748.1
680089.8
Blue201
331062.0
914060.6
268743.8
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions251168100150200300239201

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+36Auto
+28Teleop
+38Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +36
0Leave9
12Coral scored#3
58Coral points13
58Total auto22
TeleoperatedBlue +8
33Coral scored#33
117Coral points119
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#4
12Processor points18
16Net points16
28Algae points34
145Total teleop153
Reef
17L4#13
13L3#8
6L2#8
9L1 · trough#7
51Game pieces#43
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +38
0Foul points0
239Total score201

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
92.00.2
91.491.6
Auto20.3
Teleop61.9
End9.7
red by 30.0
62.00.9
60.661.5
Auto13.8
Teleop38.6
End9.6
Second
89.80.2
89.289.5
Auto21.5
Teleop55.4
End12.9
red by 29.2
60.60.9
59.260.1
Auto8.8
Teleop46.1
End5.8
Third
6357
#14
48.10.2
47.547.7
Auto7.1
Teleop34.6
End6.4
red by 4.3
2687
#29
43.80.9
42.443.2
Auto6.9
Teleop28.7
End8.3