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Red97
837028.7
406334.5
589253.9
Blue81
947830.8
624330.8
578832.6
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions138101501502009781

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+14Teleop
+16Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
3Leave0
3Coral scored#6
13Coral points30
16Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +28
16Coral scored#9
59Coral points31
2Processor algae#2
1Net algae#1
12Processor points12
4Net points4
16Algae points16
75Total teleop47
Reef
10L4#5
4L3#5
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
22Game pieces#18
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
0Foul points0
97Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5892
#17
53.91.8
55.854.0
Auto15.4
Teleop34.5
End4.0
red by 21.3
5788
#36
32.61.1
33.632.5
Auto7.5
Teleop23.8
End1.3
Second
4063
#25
34.51.8
35.433.6
Auto5.0
Teleop26.9
End2.5
red by 3.7
6243
#26
30.81.1
33.432.2
Auto7.9
Teleop20.5
End2.5
Third
8370
#39
28.71.8
30.128.3
Auto4.6
Teleop20.9
End3.2
blue by 2.1
9478
#31
30.81.1
28.227.0
Auto6.4
Teleop21.5
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
51%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
73%Barge oddsMissed32%Barge oddsMissed