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Red232
300591.6
635747.7
680089.4
Blue206
817740.2
118107.3
14869.3
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions243230200220260280300232206

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+14Teleop
+24Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave6
10Coral scored#5
52Coral points24
58Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +14
19Coral scored#19
70Coral points70
3Processor algae#8
12Net algae#8
18Processor points48
48Net points32
66Algae points80
136Total teleop150
Reef
7L4#8
10L3#6
6L2#6
6L1 · trough#4
44Game pieces#40
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +26
2Foul points0
232Total score206

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3005
Unranked
91.60.0
92.092.0
Auto20.7
Teleop61.3
End9.6
blue by 15.7
118
Unranked
107.30.3
107.9107.6
Auto23.8
Teleop72.0
End11.5
Second
6800
Unranked
89.40.0
89.889.8
Auto21.9
Teleop54.8
End12.8
red by 20.1
148
Unranked
69.30.3
69.969.6
Auto12.4
Teleop49.2
End7.7
Third
6357
Unranked
47.70.0
48.148.1
Auto7.5
Teleop33.9
End6.3
red by 7.5
8177
Unranked
40.20.3
40.740.5
Auto7.7
Teleop24.3
End8.2