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Red90
915628.1
913628.0
420629.6
Blue44
750314.3
887428.6
753510.8
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions774702040601001201409044

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+38Teleop
+40Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave3
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points6
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +24
11Coral scored#5
39Coral points19
0Processor algae#0
4Net algae#3
0Processor points0
16Net points12
16Algae points12
55Total teleop31
Reef
4L4#2
4L3#2
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#9
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
6Foul points0
90Total score44

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4206
#18
29.61.0
22.923.9
Auto6.7
Teleop21.0
End1.8
red by 1.0
28.60.2
24.824.6
Auto4.8
Teleop21.8
End2.0
Second
9156
#20
28.11.0
16.017.0
Auto6.8
Teleop17.5
End3.8
red by 13.8
7503
#33
14.30.2
13.913.7
Auto3.7
Teleop8.7
End2.0
Third
9136
#27
28.01.7
30.031.7
Auto4.8
Teleop21.7
End1.5
red by 17.2
7535
#28
10.80.2
7.97.7
Auto2.9
Teleop5.8
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsEarned11%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsMissed44%Barge oddsMissed