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Red131
300576.2
690112.0
541717.4
Blue73
753412.2
753510.8
543138.0
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11456010015020013173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+32Teleop
+42Endgame
+58Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave6
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points3
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +25
11Coral scored#9
39Coral points34
2Processor algae#2
8Net algae#3
12Processor points12
32Net points12
44Algae points24
83Total teleop58
Reef
4L4#2
4L3#4
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#15
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +58
16Foul points0
131Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.20.5
71.171.6
Auto17.9
Teleop49.7
End8.6
red by 38.2
5431
#11
38.00.5
33.333.9
Auto4.6
Teleop30.2
End3.2
Second
5417
#12
17.40.5
16.016.5
Auto3.2
Teleop11.1
End3.2
red by 5.3
7534
#24
12.20.5
12.112.6
Auto2.5
Teleop8.6
End1.0
Third
6901
#10
12.00.5
9.29.7
Auto3.8
Teleop5.5
End2.6
red by 1.1
7535
#28
10.80.5
8.69.1
Auto2.9
Teleop5.8
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
12%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
44%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsMissed