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Red117
541437.9
32351.9
419224.8
Blue125
433630.0
300567.2
769115.3
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions123147050100200250300117125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+4Teleop
+4Endgame
Fouls+8
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave6
5Coral scored#0
23Coral points0
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +13
15Coral scored#20
54Coral points73
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#3
12Processor points18
24Net points12
36Algae points30
90Total teleop103
Reef
7L4#6
7L3#8
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#26
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +8
0Foul points12
117Total score125

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
323
#13
51.90.5
42.642.1
Auto6.6
Teleop39.0
End6.3
blue by 15.3
3005
#38
67.21.5
80.679.0
Auto10.5
Teleop49.9
End6.8
Second
5414
#27
37.90.5
43.342.8
Auto9.3
Teleop27.5
End1.0
red by 7.8
4336
#18
30.01.5
36.034.5
Auto4.6
Teleop24.1
End1.3
Third
4192
#42
24.80.5
35.434.9
Auto6.8
Teleop17.8
End0.2
red by 9.4
7691
#41
15.31.5
16.615.1
Auto1.3
Teleop13.0
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed25%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed55%Barge oddsEarned