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Red214
32454.9
284845.8
32351.9
Blue185
41848.6
582941.4
300567.2
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions158170050100200250300214185

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+11Teleop
+21Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave0
7Coral scored#7
34Coral points33
37Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +7
25Coral scored#22
89Coral points78
6Processor algae#6
7Net algae#8
36Processor points36
28Net points32
64Algae points68
153Total teleop146
Reef
12L4#13
7L3#6
7L2#7
6L1 · trough#3
45Game pieces#43
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +29
8Foul points0
214Total score185

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
324
#9
54.91.1
53.654.7
Auto8.4
Teleop38.0
End8.5
blue by 12.3
3005
#38
67.20.5
66.767.2
Auto10.5
Teleop49.9
End6.8
Second
323
#13
51.91.1
50.651.7
Auto6.6
Teleop39.0
End6.3
red by 3.2
418
#21
48.60.5
48.248.6
Auto12.8
Teleop29.8
End6.0
Third
2848
#24
45.81.1
44.645.6
Auto14.6
Teleop30.3
End0.9
red by 4.4
41.40.5
40.941.4
Auto8.3
Teleop26.1
End7.0