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Red150
589246.4
947821.8
582933.5
Blue144
32436.9
557253.1
12722.9
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions99133050200250300350400150144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+4Teleop
+6Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave3
7Coral scored#5
34Coral points23
37Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +7
18Coral scored#20
65Coral points72
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#5
12Processor points12
20Net points20
32Algae points32
97Total teleop104
Reef
8L4#11
9L3#8
3L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#32
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points0
150Total score144

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5892
#15
46.41.0
44.345.3
Auto13.4
Teleop30.7
End2.4
blue by 6.6
53.10.5
53.754.1
Auto14.5
Teleop30.1
End8.4
Second
33.51.0
31.332.4
Auto8.0
Teleop18.8
End6.7
blue by 3.4
324
#4
36.90.5
37.538.0
Auto7.0
Teleop24.5
End5.4
Third
9478
#19
21.81.0
19.620.6
Auto5.4
Teleop13.6
End2.8
blue by 1.1
127
#12
22.90.5
23.524.0
Auto3.6
Teleop18.1
End1.1