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Red55
648821.5
288211.6
965821.1
Blue43
459711.8
839210.9
769114.7
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions54480204060801001205543

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+8Teleop
+8Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave9
2Coral scored#0
12Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +5
6Coral scored#7
23Coral points24
0Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
0Processor points6
12Net points0
12Algae points6
35Total teleop30
Reef
4L4#2
2L3#2
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
11Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
4Foul points0
55Total score43

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6488
#11
21.50.3
22.422.1
Auto5.0
Teleop14.8
End1.7
red by 6.8
7691
#24
14.70.8
16.816.0
Auto3.2
Teleop9.6
End2.0
Second
21.10.3
15.214.9
Auto4.2
Teleop14.8
End2.1
red by 9.3
4597
#31
11.80.5
11.010.5
Auto2.9
Teleop7.2
End1.8
Third
2882
#12
11.60.3
6.56.2
Auto3.4
Teleop4.6
End3.5
red by 0.7
8392
#18
10.90.5
11.210.8
Auto4.4
Teleop5.5
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsEarned28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsMissed18%Barge oddsMissed