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Red159
589415.9
11885.7
43327.8
Blue43
507014.6
769114.7
459711.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1243705010015020015943

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+88Teleop
+102Endgame
+116Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave9
4Coral scored#0
21Coral points0
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +67
21Coral scored#6
75Coral points20
3Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
18Processor points6
8Net points8
26Algae points14
101Total teleop34
Reef
10L4#3
7L3#1
3L2#1
5L1 · trough#1
30Game pieces#9
BargeRed +14
14Cage & park0
14Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +116
14Foul points0
159Total score43

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
118
#1
85.72.0
82.784.7
Auto21.7
Teleop53.2
End10.8
red by 71.0
7691
#24
14.71.1
14.713.6
Auto3.2
Teleop9.6
End2.0
Second
5894
#15
15.92.0
12.914.9
Auto4.1
Teleop10.9
End0.9
red by 1.3
5070
#28
14.61.2
14.813.6
Auto3.5
Teleop8.5
End2.5
Third
4332
#30
7.82.0
5.97.8
Auto1.7
Teleop3.4
End2.7
blue by 4.0
4597
#31
11.80.9
12.711.8
Auto2.9
Teleop7.2
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
51%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsMissed