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Red103
857630.4
931117.6
1011828.2
Blue98
1003215.8
278931.0
246836.4
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions949260708010011012013010398

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+15
Endgame+15
+5Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
0Leave0
3Coral scored#3
15Coral points16
15Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +14
12Coral scored#16
42Coral points56
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
52Total teleop66
Reef
7L4#8
2L3#4
4L2#5
2L1 · trough#2
17Game pieces#21
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
20Foul points0
103Total score98

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8576
#15
30.40.7
27.628.3
Auto5.1
Teleop18.9
End6.4
blue by 6.0
2468
#10
36.41.6
32.634.2
Auto5.2
Teleop25.4
End5.8
Second
28.20.7
28.629.3
Auto5.5
Teleop13.6
End9.1
blue by 2.7
31.02.3
28.030.3
Auto6.4
Teleop21.1
End3.5
Third
9311
#18
17.60.7
16.517.2
Auto3.9
Teleop11.5
End2.2
red by 1.8
15.82.3
13.515.8
Auto3.5
Teleop8.1
End4.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned77%Barge oddsEarned