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Red112
680074.0
913712.8
887920.7
Blue121
215818.6
268938.6
288155.7
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105117050150200250112121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+2
Teleop+25
Endgame+15
Fouls+9
AutonomousBlue +2
3Leave0
3Coral scored#4
17Coral points22
20Total auto22
TeleoperatedBlue +23
11Coral scored#16
38Coral points59
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
12Processor points6
12Net points20
24Algae points26
62Total teleop85
Reef
6L4#8
5L3#6
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#26
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +9
6Foul points0
112Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
74.00.4
67.868.2
Auto17.1
Teleop47.7
End9.1
red by 18.3
55.71.0
49.850.8
Auto11.9
Teleop35.9
End8.0
Second
8879
#16
20.70.4
16.416.8
Auto2.9
Teleop14.2
End3.6
blue by 17.9
38.61.0
34.735.7
Auto6.6
Teleop23.1
End9.0
Third
9137
#22
12.80.5
9.810.3
Auto4.5
Teleop7.0
End1.4
blue by 5.8
2158
#11
18.61.0
16.417.4
Auto3.9
Teleop13.0
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsEarned