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Red179
912848.7
331039.1
14863.3
Blue25
881615.9
652614.2
915614.1
100%Model gave it0%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1562505010020025017925

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+35Auto
+114Teleop
+148Endgame
+154Fouls
AutonomousRed +35
6Leave3
8Coral scored#1
38Coral points6
44Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +79
21Coral scored#3
75Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
6Processor points0
12Net points4
18Algae points4
93Total teleop14
Reef
10L4#2
9L3#1
6L2#0
4L1 · trough#1
33Game pieces#5
BargeRed +34
36Cage & park2
36Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +154
6Foul points0
179Total score25

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
148
#1
63.32.7
57.460.1
Auto14.2
Teleop41.2
End7.8
red by 47.3
8816
#20
15.91.5
8.46.9
Auto4.4
Teleop10.0
End1.5
Second
48.74.5
42.346.8
Auto13.8
Teleop30.1
End4.9
red by 34.5
6526
#21
14.20.9
17.917.0
Auto3.3
Teleop10.0
End0.9
Third
39.12.7
32.935.6
Auto10.1
Teleop22.1
End6.8
red by 25.0
9156
#28
14.11.4
12.010.6
Auto4.0
Teleop7.5
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned17%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsMissed