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Red128
676811.5
331039.1
14863.3
Blue121
617114.6
912848.7
129641.3
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions120110406080100140160180200128121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+17Teleop
+19Endgame
+7Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
7Coral scored#7
34Coral points34
40Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +14
19Coral scored#15
68Coral points54
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
82Total teleop68
Reef
11L4#8
6L3#7
6L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#25
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +7
0Foul points12
128Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
148
#1
63.30.4
62.663.0
Auto14.2
Teleop41.2
End7.8
red by 14.5
48.70.1
48.949.0
Auto13.8
Teleop30.1
End4.9
Second
39.10.4
38.538.9
Auto10.1
Teleop22.1
End6.8
blue by 2.1
41.30.1
41.441.5
Auto7.0
Teleop25.0
End9.3
Third
6768
#29
11.50.4
10.811.2
Auto3.9
Teleop7.1
End0.4
blue by 3.1
6171
#16
14.60.1
14.714.8
Auto4.5
Teleop9.6
End0.5