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Red105
463923.0
582931.1
817739.1
Blue94
951223.0
589241.9
542726.9
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10011705015020010594

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+3Teleop
+9Endgame
+11Fouls
Autonomouslevel
0Leave3
3Coral scored#3
16Coral points13
16Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +3
15Coral scored#14
53Coral points50
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
6Processor points6
16Net points16
22Algae points22
75Total teleop72
Reef
9L4#8
3L3#3
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#22
BargeRed +6
12Cage & park6
12Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
2Foul points0
105Total score94

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8177
#12
39.10.6
39.540.1
Auto9.2
Teleop23.7
End6.2
blue by 2.8
5892
#22
41.90.7
52.251.5
Auto12.3
Teleop26.8
End2.9
Second
5829
#13
31.10.6
30.130.7
Auto6.8
Teleop16.8
End7.5
red by 4.3
5427
#17
26.90.7
29.729.0
Auto7.0
Teleop15.2
End4.7
Third
4639
#27
23.00.6
24.224.8
Auto5.4
Teleop14.9
End2.6
Level
9512
#29
23.00.7
22.321.7
Auto4.2
Teleop17.9
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed22%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
76%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsMissed