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Red93
40104.4
664736.5
635753.3
Blue81
857631.6
999130.9
42957.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions112630501001502009381

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+10Teleop
+12Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
6Leave0
2Coral scored#3
10Coral points15
16Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +9
10Coral scored#10
37Coral points36
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
6Processor points6
12Net points4
18Algae points10
55Total teleop46
Reef
4L4#5
3L3#2
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
16Game pieces#15
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
6Foul points6
93Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.30.5
52.351.7
Auto10.6
Teleop33.9
End8.7
red by 21.7
8576
#25
31.60.4
32.032.4
Auto2.9
Teleop22.4
End6.3
Second
6647
#15
36.50.5
37.837.2
Auto6.8
Teleop26.9
End2.8
red by 5.6
9991
#11
30.90.5
30.130.6
Auto6.0
Teleop22.2
End2.5
Third
4010
#23
4.40.5
4.94.4
Auto2.8
Teleop1.7
End-0.2
blue by 2.8
4295
#33
7.10.4
7.57.8
Auto1.1
Teleop4.6
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsEarned21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsEarned52%Barge oddsEarned