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Red76
373530.8
752112.7
265711.2
Blue35
811414.3
550317.1
295018.0
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions515902040801001207635

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+41Teleop
+41Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave0
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points9
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +38
10Coral scored#3
36Coral points12
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
6Processor points0
12Net points4
18Algae points4
54Total teleop16
Reef
4L4#2
2L3#1
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#6
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +41
6Foul points6
76Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.81.7
20.522.1
Auto3.6
Teleop25.9
End1.4
red by 12.9
2950
#15
18.01.5
20.318.9
Auto3.1
Teleop13.3
End1.5
Second
12.71.7
5.57.1
Auto2.3
Teleop8.3
End2.1
blue by 4.4
5503
#22
17.11.5
9.17.6
Auto2.3
Teleop11.8
End3.0
Third
2657
#14
11.22.8
13.616.4
Auto4.2
Teleop4.4
End2.6
blue by 3.0
8114
#36
14.32.5
16.113.7
Auto2.3
Teleop10.0
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
12%Auto oddsEarned29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsMissed