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Red40
348113.1
461025.4
859812.5
Blue31
421917.9
61558.9
459711.5
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions46432030405060704031

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+9Teleop
+9Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +6
6Coral scored#4
22Coral points16
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
26Total teleop20
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#6
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
0Foul points0
40Total score31

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4610
#18
25.40.0
18.218.2
Auto3.2
Teleop20.0
End2.1
red by 7.4
4219
#30
17.90.5
12.712.2
Auto2.6
Teleop13.8
End1.6
Second
3481
#28
13.10.1
13.813.7
Auto2.6
Teleop7.9
End2.6
red by 1.6
4597
#20
11.50.9
17.917.1
Auto2.7
Teleop6.9
End1.9
Third
8598
#19
12.50.0
8.68.6
Auto3.4
Teleop8.2
End0.8
red by 3.6
6155
#26
8.90.5
8.27.7
Auto3.0
Teleop3.8
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
15%Auto oddsEarned14%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsMissed