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Red40
59866.5
752112.7
542728.4
Blue16
296911.1
265711.2
811414.3
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4465020801001201404016

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+10Teleop
+18Endgame
+24Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave0
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +10
4Coral scored#2
16Coral points6
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
16Total teleop6
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
4Game pieces#3
BargeRed +8
12Cage & park4
12Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
6Foul points0
40Total score16

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5427
#38
28.40.9
27.226.2
Auto4.2
Teleop22.4
End1.8
red by 14.1
8114
#36
14.34.5
20.616.1
Auto2.3
Teleop10.0
End2.0
Second
12.70.6
6.15.5
Auto2.3
Teleop8.3
End2.1
red by 1.5
2657
#14
11.24.5
18.113.6
Auto4.2
Teleop4.4
End2.6
Third
5986
#16
6.50.6
6.66.0
Auto3.0
Teleop1.5
End2.1
blue by 4.6
2969
#23
11.12.7
14.912.2
Auto3.9
Teleop4.2
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
19%Auto oddsMissed43%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsMissed