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Red134
749232.7
966415.1
557260.4
Blue47
542728.4
459711.5
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11951010015020013447

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+75Teleop
+87Endgame
+87Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave0
6Coral scored#2
31Coral points9
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +47
15Coral scored#6
55Coral points20
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
12Processor points0
8Net points8
20Algae points8
75Total teleop28
Reef
7L4#2
7L3#3
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
25Game pieces#10
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +87
6Foul points6
134Total score47

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.42.1
56.758.8
Auto14.8
Teleop36.7
End8.9
red by 32.0
5427
#38
28.40.7
27.026.4
Auto4.2
Teleop22.4
End1.8
Second
32.72.5
29.431.9
Auto9.1
Teleop21.7
End2.0
red by 21.2
4597
#20
11.50.6
11.911.3
Auto2.7
Teleop6.9
End1.9
Third
9664
#34
15.12.1
11.013.1
Auto3.3
Teleop9.3
End2.5
red by 6.4
8.70.5
9.48.9
Auto2.3
Teleop5.0
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsEarned13%Barge oddsMissed