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Red75
32409.1
459711.5
258246.4
Blue59
861012.0
295018.0
296911.1
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8443020601001201407559

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+6Teleop
+16Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
6Leave3
1Coral scored#1
4Coral points6
10Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +5
10Coral scored#9
35Coral points34
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
49Total teleop44
Reef
4L4#4
2L3#3
4L2#1
1L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#12
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
0Foul points0
75Total score59

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.40.1
44.844.9
Auto7.4
Teleop30.7
End8.3
red by 28.5
2950
#15
18.00.7
16.016.7
Auto3.1
Teleop13.3
End1.5
Second
4597
#20
11.50.2
11.311.5
Auto2.7
Teleop6.9
End1.9
blue by 0.5
8610
#39
12.00.7
11.312.0
Auto3.5
Teleop6.4
End2.1
Third
3240
#32
9.10.2
9.09.1
Auto2.6
Teleop4.4
End2.2
blue by 2.0
2969
#23
11.10.7
11.712.5
Auto3.9
Teleop4.2
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsMissed19%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed