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Red80
23127.4
814412.2
839211.3
Blue56
947817.5
1011826.4
92897.4
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions565655606570808056

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+14Teleop
+12Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave9
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +11
9Coral scored#8
34Coral points27
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
52Total teleop41
Reef
5L4#2
2L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#11
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
12Foul points0
80Total score56

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
231
#11
27.41.0
23.324.3
Auto6.4
Teleop17.4
End3.6
red by 1.0
26.40.1
21.921.7
Auto4.5
Teleop14.3
End7.6
Second
8144
#13
12.21.0
15.316.3
Auto2.8
Teleop8.7
End0.7
blue by 5.2
9478
#21
17.50.1
12.612.5
Auto3.9
Teleop11.9
End1.7
Third
8392
#14
11.31.0
9.610.7
Auto3.5
Teleop7.3
End0.5
red by 4.0
9289
#28
7.40.1
10.810.6
Auto2.4
Teleop4.7
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
42%Barge oddsEarned47%Barge oddsMissed