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Red109
458714.0
918116.3
680052.7
Blue72
648819.6
463927.6
578814.3
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8370020406010012014010972

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+9Teleop
+31Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave6
3Coral scored#3
17Coral points13
23Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +5
12Coral scored#10
42Coral points35
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#1
6Processor points12
8Net points4
14Algae points16
56Total teleop51
Reef
5L4#5
5L3#2
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
18Game pieces#16
BargeRed +22
24Cage & park2
24Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +37
6Foul points0
109Total score72

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.73.2
42.946.1
Auto15.4
Teleop31.7
End5.7
red by 25.1
4639
#16
27.61.0
25.526.5
Auto5.9
Teleop20.4
End1.3
Second
9181
#23
16.33.2
13.817.0
Auto2.7
Teleop5.9
End7.7
blue by 3.3
19.61.0
19.920.9
Auto5.0
Teleop13.9
End0.7
Third
4587
#18
14.03.2
10.013.2
Auto2.1
Teleop8.7
End3.1
blue by 0.3
5788
#22
14.31.0
11.012.0
Auto2.8
Teleop10.7
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
33%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
63%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsMissed