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Red100
406334.7
258728.9
32432.2
Blue105
928912.9
1034027.1
881813.1
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions109420100150100105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
Teleop+5
Endgame+11
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +18
0Leave0
2Coral scored#6
12Coral points30
12Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +13
15Coral scored#14
54Coral points49
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
82Total teleop69
Reef
6L4#7
5L3#7
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +6
0Cage & park6
0Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
6Foul points0
100Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.70.5
32.431.9
Auto5.7
Teleop27.8
End1.1
red by 7.6
27.13.5
24.027.5
Auto7.5
Teleop17.1
End2.5
Second
324
#4
32.20.5
33.132.6
Auto5.4
Teleop23.4
End3.4
red by 19.1
8818
#13
13.13.5
12.415.9
Auto3.2
Teleop8.8
End1.1
Third
2587
#11
28.90.5
21.120.6
Auto6.7
Teleop20.8
End1.5
red by 16.0
12.93.5
1.85.3
Auto4.0
Teleop7.5
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
37%Auto oddsEarned37%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsMissed