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Red88
85917.6
258341.6
951715.0
Blue19
761617.5
87509.6
881813.1
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions574602040801008819

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+49Teleop
+45Endgame
+69Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave9
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +42
9Coral scored#0
32Coral points0
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
42Total teleop0
Reef
4L4#0
4L3#0
2L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
13Game pieces#0
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +69
28Foul points4
88Total score19

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.60.4
35.135.5
Auto9.9
Teleop31.0
End0.7
red by 24.2
7616
#22
17.53.0
19.916.8
Auto3.4
Teleop10.7
End3.3
Second
9517
#20
15.00.6
12.212.9
Auto3.9
Teleop9.6
End1.4
red by 1.9
8818
#13
13.11.9
15.813.9
Auto3.2
Teleop8.8
End1.1
Third
8591
#15
7.60.4
6.46.9
Auto2.9
Teleop3.8
End0.9
blue by 1.9
8750
#23
9.63.2
8.55.3
Auto4.5
Teleop3.2
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned18%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed