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Red44
56136.5
521211.1
258330.3
Blue39
876912.4
215810.9
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions45260204060801004439

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+3Teleop
+1Endgame
+5Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points6
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +3
4Coral scored#5
15Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
25Total teleop22
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#7
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
6Foul points2
44Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2583
#11
30.30.3
28.428.2
Auto7.0
Teleop22.2
End1.2
red by 17.9
8769
#41
12.40.9
9.610.5
Auto2.8
Teleop8.5
End1.1
Second
5212
#33
11.10.3
6.05.7
Auto3.2
Teleop8.2
End-0.2
red by 0.3
2158
#35
10.90.9
12.913.8
Auto3.8
Teleop5.3
End1.7
Third
5613
#39
6.50.3
6.25.9
Auto2.7
Teleop2.3
End1.4
blue by 2.8
9.30.9
5.16.0
Auto2.3
Teleop5.6
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsMissed16%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
9%Barge oddsMissed36%Barge oddsMissed