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Red61
888519.4
800520.1
548022.8
Blue25
641110.7
743616.8
507111.3
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions63740501001506125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+8Teleop
+10Endgame
+36Fouls
Autonomouslevel
0Leave6
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points3
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +8
3Coral scored#2
12Coral points8
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
6Processor points6
4Net points0
10Algae points6
22Total teleop14
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
0L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
7Game pieces#4
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +36
26Foul points0
61Total score25

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5480
#13
22.81.5
17.616.1
Auto2.9
Teleop17.9
End2.0
red by 6.0
7436
#16
16.84.3
23.218.9
Auto4.1
Teleop11.8
End0.9
Second
8005
#20
20.12.6
16.113.6
Auto5.9
Teleop11.9
End2.4
red by 8.8
5071
#21
11.34.3
22.318.0
Auto3.2
Teleop5.0
End3.2
Third
8885
#19
19.42.6
21.218.7
Auto3.6
Teleop13.0
End2.9
red by 8.7
6411
#33
10.74.3
15.911.5
Auto3.0
Teleop6.6
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
14%Auto oddsMissed43%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed43%Barge oddsMissed