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Red26
364818.0
789516.7
79069.0
Blue22
320019.3
259417.8
763412.4
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions82682040601001201402622

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
0Teleop0
+4Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave6
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points3
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +3
4Coral scored#2
14Coral points7
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
0Processor points0
0Net points4
0Algae points4
14Total teleop11
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
5Game pieces#4
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points0
26Total score22

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3648
#14
18.05.3
26.721.4
Auto5.2
Teleop6.6
End6.2
blue by 1.3
3200
#35
19.34.6
23.018.3
Auto2.4
Teleop16.4
End0.5
Second
7895
#34
16.75.3
23.918.6
Auto4.4
Teleop10.3
End1.9
blue by 1.1
2594
#38
17.84.6
18.413.8
Auto4.1
Teleop12.1
End1.7
Third
7906
#29
9.05.3
19.814.5
Auto2.1
Teleop5.9
End0.9
blue by 3.4
7634
#32
12.44.6
19.715.0
Auto2.7
Teleop9.1
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsMissed42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsMissed33%Barge oddsMissed