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Red100
385916.0
364818.0
324322.7
Blue126
455031.2
429324.2
585138.3
4%Model gave it96%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions531100100150100126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+38
Endgame+26
Fouls+26
Autonomouslevel
0Leave0
3Coral scored#3
16Coral points16
16Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +38
12Coral scored#20
44Coral points72
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#7
12Processor points6
12Net points28
24Algae points34
68Total teleop106
Reef
6L4#12
4L3#5
2L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#31
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Penalties & totalBlue +26
0Foul points0
100Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3243
#22
22.71.2
21.522.7
Auto3.7
Teleop15.7
End3.3
blue by 15.6
5851
#15
38.30.9
37.638.4
Auto4.3
Teleop32.2
End1.8
Second
3648
#14
18.01.2
16.918.0
Auto5.2
Teleop6.6
End6.2
blue by 13.2
4550
#26
31.20.9
30.431.3
Auto2.9
Teleop25.8
End2.4
Third
3859
#11
16.01.0
14.916.0
Auto5.4
Teleop7.9
End2.6
blue by 8.2
4293
#10
24.20.9
23.424.3
Auto5.7
Teleop17.5
End1.0