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Red141
173162.6
583022.5
210661.9
Blue114
219946.2
61432.4
126233.6
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions159112050100200250141114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+17Teleop
+27Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
6Leave9
8Coral scored#2
38Coral points11
44Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +7
15Coral scored#19
53Coral points70
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
18Processor points12
12Net points8
30Algae points20
83Total teleop90
Reef
8L4#7
7L3#7
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#25
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +27
0Foul points0
141Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.60.0
60.560.5
Auto14.2
Teleop39.4
End9.0
red by 16.4
2199
#13
46.20.1
44.744.9
Auto9.8
Teleop28.2
End8.1
Second
61.90.0
59.859.8
Auto16.9
Teleop37.1
End7.8
red by 28.3
1262
#16
33.60.1
32.032.2
Auto4.0
Teleop28.3
End1.2
Third
5830
#26
22.50.0
20.420.4
Auto3.0
Teleop18.3
End1.1
blue by 9.9
614
#15
32.40.1
30.931.0
Auto7.4
Teleop24.0
End1.0