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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9312750150200129151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+20
Endgame+22
Fouls+22
AutonomousBlue +14
3Leave0
4Coral scored#7
20Coral points37
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +6
19Coral scored#18
68Coral points64
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
6Processor points12
12Net points16
18Algae points28
86Total teleop92
Reef
8L4#10
6L3#7
3L2#5
6L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +22
6Foul points6
129Total score151

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
686
#14
38.30.7
37.638.3
Auto8.1
Teleop28.0
End2.2
blue by 13.4
620
#2
51.70.7
51.051.7
Auto16.6
Teleop31.9
End3.1
Second
34.30.7
33.634.3
Auto5.0
Teleop23.8
End5.4
blue by 11.0
836
#5
45.30.7
44.645.3
Auto8.6
Teleop31.8
End4.9
Third
2186
#17
19.80.7
19.119.8
Auto4.9
Teleop7.8
End7.1
red by 0.2
6326
#36
19.60.7
19.019.6
Auto6.5
Teleop10.2
End2.9