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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9112750100150200114132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+30
Endgame+12
Fouls+18
AutonomousBlue +11
6Leave0
4Coral scored#7
20Coral points37
26Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +19
12Coral scored#16
42Coral points59
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
6Processor points12
16Net points12
22Algae points24
64Total teleop83
Reef
5L4#6
5L3#6
4L2#6
2L1 · trough#5
21Game pieces#28
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Penalties & totalBlue +18
0Foul points6
114Total score132

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
686
#14
38.30.5
37.137.6
Auto8.1
Teleop28.0
End2.2
blue by 13.4
620
#2
51.70.2
50.851.0
Auto16.6
Teleop31.9
End3.1
Second
34.30.5
33.133.6
Auto5.0
Teleop23.8
End5.4
blue by 11.0
836
#5
45.30.2
44.444.6
Auto8.6
Teleop31.8
End4.9
Third
2186
#17
19.80.5
18.619.1
Auto4.9
Teleop7.8
End7.1
red by 0.2
6326
#36
19.60.2
18.819.0
Auto6.5
Teleop10.2
End2.9