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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions777970758590959297

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+11
Endgame+1
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave0
2Coral scored#5
9Coral points23
9Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +3
14Coral scored#14
51Coral points50
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#3
6Processor points0
8Net points12
14Algae points12
65Total teleop62
Reef
6L4#5
6L3#5
2L2#5
2L1 · trough#4
19Game pieces#22
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
2Foul points6
92Total score97

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2534
#10
42.71.2
36.938.0
Auto9.8
Teleop30.3
End2.7
blue by 3.2
9072
#15
45.91.3
44.245.4
Auto10.3
Teleop34.2
End1.4
Second
34.31.2
25.026.1
Auto5.0
Teleop23.8
End5.4
red by 3.8
9033
#12
30.51.3
18.319.5
Auto5.6
Teleop20.3
End4.6
Third
2914
#35
25.41.3
10.712.0
Auto3.4
Teleop18.4
End3.7
red by 8.7
2963
#13
16.71.3
9.811.0
Auto4.0
Teleop11.2
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsMissed48%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned61%Barge oddsMissed