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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions46550208010012014012034

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+50Teleop
+48Endgame
+86Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave0
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points9
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +46
13Coral scored#4
47Coral points15
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
6Processor points0
12Net points4
18Algae points4
65Total teleop19
Reef
7L4#2
5L3#2
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#7
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +86
38Foul points0
120Total score34

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
836
#5
45.32.3
29.031.4
Auto8.6
Teleop31.8
End4.9
red by 22.4
3793
#24
22.91.2
20.018.7
Auto4.7
Teleop17.3
End0.9
Second
4464
#28
11.62.3
9.611.9
Auto3.5
Teleop6.8
End1.3
blue by 8.2
2186
#17
19.81.5
15.814.3
Auto4.9
Teleop7.8
End7.1
Third
2988
#32
7.52.6
5.37.9
Auto2.7
Teleop2.0
End2.8
blue by 8.7
1446
#27
16.31.2
13.912.7
Auto4.1
Teleop11.1
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsMissed62%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsEarned23%Barge oddsMissed