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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8366020401001201401608264

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+12Teleop
+12Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave9
3Coral scored#0
13Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +5
10Coral scored#8
36Coral points29
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
0Processor points6
8Net points4
8Algae points10
44Total teleop39
Reef
5L4#3
4L3#3
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#10
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
6Foul points0
82Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.90.0
44.244.2
Auto9.7
Teleop30.7
End10.5
red by 10.0
40.90.0
40.940.9
Auto7.7
Teleop25.7
End7.5
Second
2963
#13
16.70.0
17.617.6
Auto4.0
Teleop11.2
End1.5
red by 4.8
2068
#29
11.90.0
9.99.9
Auto3.4
Teleop5.9
End2.6
Third
1446
#27
16.30.0
14.714.7
Auto4.1
Teleop11.1
End1.2
red by 5.1
6882
#26
11.20.0
13.513.4
Auto2.3
Teleop7.2
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsEarned67%Barge oddsEarned