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Red66
335922.7
580442.5
572422.3
Blue33
393931.6
1025719.9
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions85610501001506633

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+29Teleop
+33Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave9
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points7
13Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +32
9Coral scored#3
31Coral points11
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
6Processor points6
12Net points0
18Algae points6
49Total teleop17
Reef
4L4#1
2L3#1
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#5
BargeRed +4
4Cage & park0
4Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
0Foul points0
66Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5804
#10
42.50.4
33.933.5
Auto9.6
Teleop28.0
End4.9
red by 10.9
3939
#21
31.61.5
21.720.2
Auto4.4
Teleop27.4
End-0.2
Second
3359
#22
22.70.4
17.617.3
Auto3.5
Teleop18.0
End1.2
red by 2.8
19.91.5
17.616.1
Auto5.3
Teleop12.4
End2.2
Third
5724
#11
22.30.4
19.819.4
Auto3.6
Teleop17.2
End1.5
red by 12.7
9.61.5
16.615.1
Auto4.6
Teleop3.4
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsMissed60%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed18%Barge oddsMissed