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Red129
99965.6
126232.6
97743.3
Blue71
999511.9
146627.1
1000411.0
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11253010015020025012971

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
977
#4
43.30.0
43.343.3
Auto8.6
Teleop32.1
End2.5
red by 16.2
1466
#14
27.10.0
27.127.1
Auto7.6
Teleop17.3
End1.9
Second
32.60.0
32.632.6
Auto3.5
Teleop28.3
End0.7
red by 20.7
11.90.0
11.911.9
Auto2.0
Teleop9.3
End0.9
Third
9996
#16
5.60.0
5.65.6
Auto0.2
Teleop5.3
End0.4
blue by 5.4
11.00.0
11.011.0
Auto6.0
Teleop3.3
End1.5