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Red138
40424.3
42258.8
141826.0
Blue143
54045.7
62057.4
159917.3
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions153138050100200250138143

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+17Teleop
+9Endgame
Fouls+5
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave6
5Coral scored#5
27Coral points24
33Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +14
16Coral scored#16
59Coral points57
2Processor algae#2
7Net algae#4
12Processor points12
28Net points16
40Algae points28
99Total teleop85
Reef
9L4#5
5L3#8
3L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
30Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
0Foul points14
138Total score143

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
422
#6
58.80.4
62.362.7
Auto16.9
Teleop34.4
End7.6
red by 1.4
620
#4
57.40.1
59.259.3
Auto15.2
Teleop39.6
End2.6
Second
1418
#21
26.00.4
34.835.2
Auto8.9
Teleop11.2
End6.0
blue by 19.7
540
#5
45.70.1
40.640.7
Auto10.8
Teleop34.2
End0.8
Third
404
#9
24.30.4
22.623.0
Auto3.4
Teleop21.3
End-0.4
red by 7.0
1599
#17
17.30.1
17.217.3
Auto2.1
Teleop9.1
End6.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned55%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
18%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
83%Barge oddsMissed33%Barge oddsEarned