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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions71792040601001201404040

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+12Teleop
+6Endgame
0Fouls0
Autonomouslevel
9Leave6
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +12
5Coral scored#4
17Coral points15
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
31Total teleop19
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +6
0Cage & park6
0Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totallevel
0Foul points6
40Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.5
Auto7.2
Teleop21.3
End1.1
red by 8.2
1262
#29
21.3
Auto4.2
Teleop15.6
End1.6
Second
24.0
Auto3.6
Teleop18.7
End1.7
red by 2.8
6326
#31
21.1
Auto3.9
Teleop13.9
End3.4
Third
1522
#28
19.4
Auto1.6
Teleop16.6
End1.2
red by 5.9
13.5
Auto4.0
Teleop7.7
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsMissed47%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsMissed37%Barge oddsMissed