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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9571204060801201401608065

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+13Teleop
+15Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave3
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
9Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +7
10Coral scored#12
35Coral points42
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
12Processor points6
20Net points12
32Algae points18
67Total teleop60
Reef
4L4#3
3L3#5
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#16
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
0Foul points0
80Total score65

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
449
#3
54.71.1
36.935.8
Auto9.0
Teleop43.7
End2.1
red by 12.9
41.80.8
30.429.6
Auto5.7
Teleop30.3
End5.8
Second
3373
#10
22.11.1
26.325.3
Auto3.5
Teleop12.7
End5.9
red by 8.0
2998
#18
14.20.8
15.915.1
Auto2.4
Teleop10.8
End1.0
Third
404
#23
21.91.1
17.616.5
Auto4.2
Teleop16.5
End1.2
red by 9.3
4505
#30
12.50.8
18.317.5
Auto2.9
Teleop8.9
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsMissed44%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsMissed35%Barge oddsMissed